ABSTRACT
Aviation history has shown an increase in aircraft size in every generation, culminating in the Airbus A380 with a typical capacity of 450 to 600 seats. However, this trend may have come to a halt, as the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the retirement of very large aircraft. Already before the pandemic, airlines had begun to switch to more efficient, but smaller, twin-engine widebody aircraft like Airbus 350 and Boeing 787, and Airbus and Boeing had ceased the production of their largest aircraft types. As a result, in a post-COVID world, airlines will have to rely on aircraft considerably smaller than previously. In our paper, we analyze the operational history of very large passenger aircraft and discuss the economic challenges operating these aircraft. Furthermore, we provide a short-, medium and long-term view on strategies for airlines to cope with a situation where very large passenger aircraft will not be available any longer. We argue, that in the short term, airlines can react to this situation with revenue management techniques, effectively crowding out passengers with the least willingness to pay. In the medium term, airlines are likely to react with changing network strategies. New aircraft that will become available in the near future will allow airlines to operate ultra-long-haul routes and long-haul routes on airport pairs with lower demand. In the long term, we argue that aircraft manufacturers may have to re-consider their product portfolio, given the long-term growth prospects of aviation, capacity constraints at major airports and a preference of larger aircraft by airlines in their pursuit to reduce unit costs. Hence, despite the current arguments against very large passenger aircraft, a renaissance of this aircraft class might emerge in the next decades. © 2022 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.
ABSTRACT
Intercontinental air travel has been steadily growing in pre-COVID-19 times. The rise of the BoGu (Bosporus-Gulf) hubs in Abu Dhabi, Doha, Dubai and Istanbul and located centrally between Europe, Africa and Asia/Oceania, is a prime example for this trend. Hence, the BoGu network carriers have reached considerable market shares on several origin-destination markets. As a consequence, traditional network airlines affected by the competition from BoGu carriers are looking for ways to re-capture market shares. One example for this is the inauguration of new ultra-long-haul non-stop flights as a new business model. At least for city pairs with sufficient origin-destination demand, such flights render intermediate stops or transfers at hubs obsolete, allowing the carriers to offer their passengers significant travel time savings. This trend is supported by aircraft manufacturers, which have developed new, fuel-efficient aircraft, capable of carrying a commercially viable payload over distances impossible in previous decades. With these aircraft, direct services on city pairs can be offered, which previously required a transfer or fuel stop. We analyze the market characteristics and effects of ultra-long-haul operations offered recently and estimate the prospects of further ultra-long-haul operations in the future. Our analysis is based on origin-destination passenger demand levels on the level city pairs. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.